Lugano,
Imprecise probability
is a generic term for the many mathematical or statistical models which measure
chance or uncertainty without sharp numerical probabilities. These models
include belief functions, Choquet capacities, comparative probability orderings,
convex sets of probability measures, fuzzy measures, interval-valued probabilities,
possibility measures, plausibility measures, and upper and lower expectations
or previsions. Imprecise probability models are needed in inference problems
where the relevant information is scarce, vague or conflicting, and in decision
problems where preferences may also be incomplete.
The school is intended as a wide and
deep introduction to imprecise probability topics, both theoretical and applied.
In particular, the school will focus on coherent lower previsions and their
behavioral interpretation, decision theory, robust statistics, risk analysis,
imprecise probability methods for artificial intelligence and knowledge discovery.
Applications will include case studies from environmental science, statistical
classification, and medical diagnosis. It will be an aim of the school to
connect the mentioned topics into an overall picture within the framework
of imprecise probabilities.
The school will be held in room
A-11 at the University of Lugano (USI),
located in the centre of
Lugano, on July 27-31, 2004. Each of the 5 days will be made of 4 hours
of theory and 4 hours of exercises.
This event is organized by the Society for Imprecise Probability Theories
and Applications (SIPTA) and by
the Istituto Dalle Molle
di Studi sull'Intelligenza Artificiale (IDSIA).
Thomas Augustin (
Gert de Cooman (Gent University, Belgium)
Scott Ferson (Applied Biomathematics, USA)
Serafín Moral (
Teddy Seidenfeld (Carnegie Mellon University, USA)
Marco Zaffalon (IDSIA, Switzerland)
Participation is open to all
qualified applicants, but the number of participants will be limited to a
maximum of about 50. The participation fee will be 50 CHFs (Swiss Francs),
to be paid on site. Students willing to participate in the school should send
an application letter with curriculum vitae (stating also their previous knowledge
in fields related to the theme of the school) and a brief letter of reference
by a university professor to the following address no later than
Marco Zaffalon CH-6928 Manno (Lugano)
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Location: The school will be held in room A-11 at the USI, located in the centre of Lugano, a beautiful city on the shores of Lake Lugano, in the Ticino Canton, the southern part of Switzerland. Lugano is close to Zurich (3 hours by train, 20 minutes by plane), to Milan (1 hour by train) and to Venice (4 hours by train). A map of the campus is available. Room A-11 is in Buffi street; see the old Ospedale street in the map (the street name recently changed from Ospedale to Buffi!). The school building is red. Signs will be put to indicate the school venue.
Lunches: If enough people are interested, it will possible to have lunches, at the special price of about 13 CHFs each, at the restaurant of the Lugano 1 high school, in the middle of the beautiful Ciani park. The restaurant is about 15 minutes walk from the school venue. Please indicate this request in your application to participate.
The Lugano 1 high school.
Accommodation:
Lugano is popular with tourists and the summer is a busy period, so you
are recommended to book the hotel as soon as possible. Here you have a list
of hotels located in the city center of Lugano and close to the school.
You can also visit the site of Swiss
Hotels Association to book online your accommodation.
If you plan to extend your stay
in
How to get to
Lugano: you
can get to Lugano by train, car or plane.
By plane: Lugano Agno (LUG) is the airport of Lugano. Swiss is the
main operator of the airport and there are direct flights with major European
cities. There are also two major international hubs, Zurich (ZHR) and Milano
Malpensa (MPX) which are relatively close to Lugano. Zurich is connected to
Lugano every hour by train (see below) and the travel time is 3.5 hours (return
ticket ~108 CHFs). Milano is connected by a shuttle
bus that takes 70 minutes to cover the distance (return ticket ~50 CHFs).
By train: The Swiss federal railways provide an interactive
timetable which can help you in planning your rail trip to Lugano.
By car: Lugano is placed on the A2 autobahn which crosses Switzerland
along the north-south axis. Traffic conditions can be checked on the Touring
Club Suisse website (follow the "inforoute" link).
Last update: 11 August 2004